T-bills: 91-day, 364-day yields to trade slightly higher in second half of 2026
The 91-day bill is expected to trade within 5.5%-7.5% in the second half of 2026, while the 364-day bill would trade within 12.5%-14.0%. According to Databank Research, its outlook reflects the competing effects of the Treasury’s cost-containment strategy and higher funding requirements linked to upcoming obligations. It said in its 2026 Half-Year Report that active […]
In the second half of 2026, the yields on 91-day and 364-day Treasury bills are anticipated to slightly increase, according to Databank Research. The 91-day bill is predicted to trade within a range of 5.5%-7.5%, while the 364-day bill's yield is expected to fall between 12.5%-14.0%. This projection is influenced by the Treasury's cost-control measures and the heightened funding demands from upcoming obligations.
The current yields on these bills are close to 4.9% for the 91-day bill and 10% for the 364-day bill. Despite the slight upward pressure on rates due to increased financing needs, active yield management is expected to prevent sharp price fluctuations. The upcoming GH¢10.8 billion Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) coupon payment in August 2026 is anticipated to boost market liquidity at the beginning of the period.
Furthermore, reinvestment by financial institutions such as banks, pension funds, and investment schemes should maintain demand for government securities, ensuring auction coverage and secondary-market activity, especially in the third quarter of 2026.
However, as the year progresses, the impact of this liquidity boost may wane. Increased sovereign and corporate bond issuances could absorb the excess liquidity, potentially moderating the rate increases. The Treasury plans to gradually resume domestic bond market participation through targeted medium- and long-term issuances, which will help develop the yield curve and reduce reliance on short-dated T-bills.
Planned debt-reprofiling and bond-buyback operations will also aid in retiring high-cost obligations and smoothing the maturity profile.
Issuance is expected to continue as the government builds the Sinking Fund, aiming for a target of GH¢30 billion by year-end. The government is also working on strengthening buffers ahead of significant Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) maturities from 2027. Investor demand remained robust in the first half of 2026, with total bids rising by 94.1% year-on-year to GH¢234.86 billion.
The average target-cover and bid-to-cover ratios of 1.10x and 1.39x respectively indicate strong auction demand despite some moderating trends in participation.
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