Shadow of Xi summit hangs over Trump’s high-stakes talks with Japan’s Takaichi

President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on Thursday, following a separate meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday. This meeting is particularly significant as it comes just two days after Takaichi's high-stakes talks with the US president, ahead of what could be a contentious midterm election for the latter. The summit between Trump and Xi marks the Chinese leader's first visit to the US in over a decade.

Takaichi's meeting with Trump underscores Japan's efforts to safeguard its vital interests amidst strained ties with Beijing. In November, Takaichi had made remarks indicating that an attack on Taiwan could pose a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, a statement that infuriated Beijing and resulted in a diplomatic freeze.

Takaichi’s upcoming meeting with Trump is seen as a strategic move by Tokyo to prevent Washington from making concessions at the expense of Japan's regional security and economic interests. The Japanese prime minister will emphasize Tokyo's perspective to the US leader, with discussions expected to focus on Beijing's rare earth export controls and Taiwan. Experts suggest that these topics will be central to the talks, with the Japanese prime minister reiterating Tokyo's stance.

Japan is keen to secure more reliable flows of critical minerals and other inputs, while also pressing Washington to treat China's dual-use restrictions on Japan as an alliance-wide supply-chain issue. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun defended the rare earth export controls, stating that they are a necessary step to curb Japan's defence build-up and nuclear ambitions. Japan controls 90% of the world's processed rare earths and a significant portion of extraction, which gives it considerable leverage.

Takaichi's own views on Taiwan's security are closely tied to Japan's. She has expressed concern over Trump's delay in supplying arms to Taiwan and is closely monitoring the outcome of his summit with Xi. The Japanese government fears that Taiwan, known in Japan as the Diaoyu Islands, could be next on Trump's agenda if he leans towards Beijing on the Taiwan Strait issue.