Seven Ethiopian rebel groups form new alliance to unseat government

In Ethiopia, seven armed opposition factions have united to form a new coalition called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition aims to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his administration. It includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and four other regional organizations. The alliance covers half of the nation's twelve regional states.

The coalition accuses the government of causing war, genocide, mass destruction, and poverty. They claim current federal policies could lead to the country's disintegration. Ethiopia operates under a system of ethnic federalism, which divides the country into twelve regional states. However, this framework often leads to social and political conflict among over eighty ethnic communities.

Several groups in the new coalition have fought against each other in past conflicts. For example, Amhara’s Fano militia once fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF during the Tigray war but later turned against them. The Oromia Liberation Army has also been engaged in combat with federal forces since 2018. Despite these past enmities, the coalition's leaders claim they will now work together against a common enemy.

The coalition plans to have both political coordination and military planning. They may need to conduct joint military operations to remove the regime. However, the Ethiopian government and media criticized the coalition's announcement, accusing Tigray TV of promoting armed insurgency. The federal government recently held elections where the opposition boycotted, and the Tigray region was excluded. Prime Minister Abiy expressed confidence in national security forces.

Despite these challenges, the coalition aims to form an inclusive transitional administration guided by a transitional charter. However, bridging deep-seated ethnic mistrust remains a significant obstacle. While the alliance's formation changes the domestic security calculus in the Horn of Africa, eradication of ethnic conflict and mistrust remains a formidable challenge.