Russians abroad voted eight to one against Putin's party, defying official results

Independent exit polls reveal a stark contrast in the voting patterns of Russians abroad during the State Duma elections, with the liberal New People party overwhelmingly defeating Vladimir Putin's United Russia party by a margin of eight to one. This deviation from official results inside Russia, where United Russia secured nearly 58% of the vote, highlights a notable discrepancy.

According to two exit polls conducted during the weekend's elections, New People received 43% of the votes abroad, the Communist Party garnered 18.3%, and United Russia garnered 5.5%. In 10 countries, including Germany and Finland, United Russia failed to surpass the 5% threshold required to win Duma seats.

However, a separate exit poll by opposition movement Vesna and the Progress project found New People leading at every location with 47.3%, followed by the Communist Party at 19.2% and United Russia at 2.8%. The stark contrast between the official Russian results and these independent polls demonstrates a significant divergence in public opinion.

Ivan Zhdanov, director of the Progress project and a former head of Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, expressed concern over the official results, stating that 83.5% of respondents do not fully or mostly trust them. He emphasized that the international vote provides a different reality and undermines the perception of support for the authorities.

Although the votes cast abroad will not determine the composition of the Duma, they reveal a different picture of Russian citizens' opinions. Many Russians who left after the 2022 invasion oppose the war, and the only anti-war party, Yabloko, was barred from the election due to a procedural issue, leaving them with no choice but to vote for New People.

The Vote Abroad project, which conducts these exit polls, aims to provide a truthful account of the electoral process abroad. This independent initiative, launched in 2021, has conducted exit polls at Russian elections since then, including the 2024 presidential vote. Volunteers use anonymous written questionnaires, analyzed by professional sociologists, to ensure impartiality and independence.

Despite the generally calm atmosphere during voting abroad, some incidents occurred. Russian authorities, including the Central Election Commission chair Ella Pamfilova, have dismissed the exit polls as "anti-Russian agitators" and imposed restrictions on volunteers' access to polling stations. Local authorities in Geneva even requested volunteers to stand at least 150 meters away from the consulate entrance.

The official Russian narrative portrays voters abroad as wearing outfits reminiscent of Soviet times, some hostile to the volunteers demanding to know their citizenship or voting preferences. However, many of those who voted for United Russia saw the exit poll as a validation of the CEC's figures.

For the Kremlin, maintaining a positive image is crucial, and the disparity between the official results and these independent exit polls highlights the Kremlin's efforts to control public perception. The Vote Abroad project serves as a vital source of information, providing a more accurate representation of the electoral landscape for Russian citizens living abroad.