No cheery time for election pollsters in run-up to US midterms
There are no guarantees that pollsters’ troubles in recent elections and popular skepticism about their dependability will be alleviated anytime soon.
The 2024 U.S. midterm elections have proven challenging for pollsters, who have consistently underestimated public figures' popularity. In the past decade, pollsters have repeatedly failed to accurately predict election outcomes. In the 2022 midterms, polling was spotty, and in 2024, pollsters underestimated President Donald Trump's support for the third consecutive election.
This led The Atlantic to label the 2024 polls as "quietly still bad." In recent months, pollsters have faced additional scrutiny due to fabricated poll results in key races, including Democratic primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin. These false surveys were created by a 21-year-old recent college graduate to demonstrate how misleading survey data can gain widespread attention.
Furthermore, prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, have gained prominence in election forecasting. These markets allow individuals to bet on election outcomes and have expanded in recent years. While some argue that prediction markets can offer real-time probabilities and outperform traditional polls, others remain skeptical, pointing out that bettors often rely on pre-election polls and forecasts.
Despite these challenges, the importance of accurate polling remains crucial for understanding public opinion and influencing election outcomes.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
