Jefferies downgrades Marathon Petroleum stock rating on refining outlook

Jefferies has lowered its rating on Marathon Petroleum's stock to "Hold" from "Buy" and set a price target of $413.00 per share. Analyst Lloyd Byrne explained that the firm sees refining risk-reward as supporting existing positions but advises waiting for market volatility before adding new positions. The current share price suggests that Marathon Petroleum's mid-cycle margins in 2030 could be similar to those observed in 2025, even with higher strip pricing from the latter half of 2026 through 2029.

Despite the downgrade, the stock has still surged 150% year-to-date, trading at $402.38, close to its 52-week high of $431. However, Jefferies rates the company's financial health as "GREAT" at 3.29. The analyst cautioned that risks such as diesel demand destruction, war resolution, and political intervention could impact the outlook.

In separate news, Marathon Petroleum reported impressive second-quarter 2026 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations with earnings of $17.73 per share on revenue of $52.34 billion, compared to estimates of $12.94 per share and $41.16 billion in revenue. This strong performance was driven by solid operations, favorable market conditions, and disciplined crude sourcing.

Freedom Broker upgraded the stock rating from "Sell" to "Hold" and raised the price target to $297, while UBS increased its price target to $450 and maintained a "Buy" rating, anticipating further elevated mid-cycle margins.