Indonesia braces for forest, land fire risk into early October as El Nino keeps rainfall low

Indonesia is preparing for a prolonged period of forest and land fire risk into early October, as an exceptionally strong El Nino phenomenon continues to suppress rainfall across large portions of the country. Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) officials have noted that the atmosphere remains unusually dry in regions such as Sumatra and Kalimantan, where hotspots indicative of forest fires have been detected at unusually high rates.

As of September 21, Central Kalimantan recorded the highest concentration of such hotspots, with 5,283 detected, followed by South Sumatra and West Kalimantan with 1,485 and 1,357 respectively.

Authorities are urging both the public and regional governments to conserve water and increase vigilance against the threat of drought and forest fires. BMKG predicts that rainfall will remain low to moderate levels from late September into early October, although localized heavy rain could still occur due to short-term atmospheric conditions.

For the 2026-2027 rainy season, BMKG expects that more than 60% of Indonesia's land area will see the season begin later than usual, with many areas beginning as late as November or December. It is also forecast that the rainy season will be shorter than average for more than half of the country's land area. Despite this, the season is expected to have normal rainfall overall, though some regions may experience above-normal rainfall while others could be drier than usual.

BMKG has urged authorities to improve drainage systems and evacuation preparedness for potential floods and landslides as the country transitions from prolonged dry conditions to increased rainfall. The rainy season is generally expected to peak between December and February, though timing may vary across the vast archipelago.