How Putin's Invasion of NATO Could Unfold as Estonia Border Closed

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has outlined a potential scenario in which Russia could attack Estonia to challenge NATO's unity and resolve. Russian intelligence has recently limited movement and access near the Estonian border, hinting at a possible invasion. Estonia has threatened to close its border with Russia if Vladimir Putin orders a mass mobilization of troops.

This scenario would test NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause, which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. While Moscow is currently focused on Ukraine, the ISW warns that such an operation would present challenges for NATO military structures. Russia could use drones, especially FPV drones, to strike Estonian forces in Narva, a predominantly Russian-speaking town on the border.

The Kremlin might demand recognition of a local "People's Republic" in Narva, or threaten to expand its attack if Estonia does not comply. However, the likelihood of a full-scale NATO response remains uncertain, depending on the response from other NATO members and the U.S.