Gulf leaders meet Trump with two fears: more war and less US protection

Two major concerns loom over Gulf leaders as they meet with US President Donald Trump in New York. Their primary fear is that the conflict with Iran could escalate further, drawing them deeper into a war. Simultaneously, they worry that the United States may reduce its protection in the region at a time when Iran's proxies are targeting Saudi energy infrastructure.

In early August, Trump called off a major attack on Iran at the behest of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, who believed a deal with Tehran was within reach. However, no such deal has emerged, and oil prices remain high as the US midterm elections approach. Trump told Axios that he faces a "big decision" on the war and seeks direct input from Gulf leaders.

Their challenge is to provide him with a way forward that safeguards them from additional attacks without fueling the conflict further. The current situation is reminiscent of a previous diplomatic meeting that persuaded Trump to avoid a major escalation, and now, as the war intensifies, the Gulf states face significant challenges.

The war has already caused Riyadh to suffer its most substantial security threat since the 1991 Gulf War. With US missile stockpiles depleted and another escalation potentially harming Republican candidates in the midterm elections, Trump's inclination to intervene directly on behalf of the Gulf states is uncertain. The Gulf states, who host American forces and purchase US weapons, are counting on Washington to deter threats.

However, the US-led security bargain that took shape after the 1991 Gulf War is now being tested. Trump's threat to "annihilate" Iran's regime remains unclear, but he has reasons to reconsider. The US has severely depleted missile stockpiles, and an escalation could lead to Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran's retaliation, which they are unwilling to endure.

Riyadh is already facing a two-front assault, while Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait continue to experience trade disruptions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although UAE has engaged more with Iran, trust building is expected to take decades, and dialogue must be paired with deterrence. Gulf leaders will need to present Trump with "very, very specific asks" to persuade him, ensuring a united front against Iran and maintaining stability in the region.