Good news for Milei: Argentine agro-industry projects new record for 2027

President Javier Milei received a positive forecast for Argentina's agricultural sector in the coming year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that grain production will reach a record high of 158 million tonnes in 2027 - a 0.5% increase from 2026's 157 million tonnes. This projected production level is expected to boost economic activity in the agro-industrial sector to US$54 billion, a 6% rise from the previous cycle, with exports reaching US$41 billion (6.9% higher).

Ramiro Costa, general manager of the agricultural chamber, noted that these figures represent potential production and are contingent on weather conditions and production decisions in the months ahead. Despite mining and oil and gas sectors experiencing growth, the agricultural industry remains the primary source of foreign exchange for Argentina.

In 2026's first eight months, agricultural products and related manufactured goods (excluding meat and meat products) accounted for more than 50% of Argentina's US$67 billion in exports.

The agricultural sector looks to capitalize on recent reductions in export duties, implemented by the government in May 2026. President Milei announced a decrease in taxes for wheat and barley to 5.5% (down from 7.5% effective June 2026), while soybean taxes will gradually reduce from January 2027 through 2028, contingent on revenue trends.

Ricardo Marra, president of the agricultural chamber, emphasized that these tax cuts are crucial for improving producer profitability and encouraging innovation, investment, technology adoption, and exports.

While Milei's outlook is optimistic, Marra expressed some concerns about ensuring competitiveness to keep up with regional competitors, such as Brazil. The agricultural chamber projects a 18.7% growth in Mercosur's cereal and oilseed exports, with Argentina accounting for 74% of wheat exports and Brazil leading in soybean and corn exports.

The agricultural sector's success will depend on overcoming infrastructure challenges and expanding market access to compete in the increasingly global market for higher-value-added products.