Diamond prices fall to lowest levels this two decades as lab-grown stones reshape market

Diamond prices have plummeted to their lowest in two decades, with wholesale costs now roughly 30-40% lower than their 2021 highs. The drop is due to reduced demand, surplus supply, and the rising competition from lab-grown diamonds. A typical 1-carat natural round diamond today costs between $3,530 and $3,860. Lab-grown diamonds, while chemically similar to natural ones, are typically 70-85% cheaper.

Wholesale prices for synthetic diamonds have plummeted over 75% since 2022, according to a report by TradingView. In March 2025 alone, lab-grown diamond prices fell by 29.9%, compared to a mere 4% decline for natural diamonds of comparable quality. China is the driving force behind lab-grown diamond supply, producing over 60% of the world's synthetic diamonds.

Chinese exports of lab-grown diamonds surged 65.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, exacerbating the pressure on an already fragile market. The abundance of cheaper stones has also impacted mid-tier natural diamonds, which vie for the same consumers. Larger and superior-quality natural diamonds have managed to maintain their premium prices due to their rarity.

However, the decline in demand has also hurt diamond mining, with Debswana, a De Beers and Botswana government joint venture, experiencing a significant drop in sales. Mining diamonds presents a unique scarcity challenge compared to Bitcoin. Diamond value varies based on cut, color, clarity, and inclusions, whereas Bitcoin is fungible and has a capped supply of 21 million coins.

The emergence of lab-grown diamonds has challenged the notion of diamond scarcity. Advances in technology now enable the mass production of chemically identical stones, putting pressure on prices and the perceived value of some natural diamonds. While top-end natural diamonds remain resilient, comprising only a small share of the market, the rapid growth of lab-grown diamond production, especially in China, is likely to continue shaping prices across the industry.