Copper pushes higher on Chinese buying, capped by firm dollar

Copper prices continued their upward trend for a sixth consecutive day on Tuesday, buoyed by Chinese buying ahead of the holiday season, although a stronger dollar limited the gains. The benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7% to $14,770 a metric ton by 0930 GMT, after gaining 1% the previous session.

Copper has surged 18% this year, driven by significant demand moving to the US due to speculation surrounding potential tariffs on refined copper. Copper reached a record high of $14,875 on September 10, but subsequently declined after reports surfaced that US officials were apprehensive that tariffs could escalate manufacturing costs.

Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, noted that copper is finding support from improving physical market conditions in China, with dwindling inventories, seasonal restocking demand, and limited spot availability counterbalancing the stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding tariffs. The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed 1.2% to 111,320 yuan ($16,616) a ton, also propelled by renewed speculative support.

Chinese consumers are actively purchasing copper before the upcoming holidays, which span from September 25 to 27 and from October 1 to 7. Sandeep Daga, head of research at Metal Intelligence Centre, explained that the country's seasonal restocking demand and limited spot availability are offsetting the dollar's strength and tariff uncertainty. In fact, copper inventories in warehouses monitored by SHFE have plummeted by 70% since early June.

Some analysts believe copper prices may be nearing a ceiling. Robert Montefusco, a broker at Sucden, suggested that the current level of copper prices seems inflated. He stated that if the prices were to rise further, many Chinese producers might start selling their reserves due to doubts about the sustainability of the elevated prices.

Traders are eagerly anticipating a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the week, hoping for insights into trade relations and the global economic outlook. In addition to copper, other metals such as aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experienced minor declines or modest gains during the same period.