Colombia Blackout Cost Put at US$1.75 Million an Hour as El Niño Strains Gas
Colombia blackout cost: Corficolombiana puts power rationing at about US$1.75 million an hour as El Niño drains dams and strains gas supply. The post Colombia Blackout Cost Put at US$1.75 Million an Hour as El Niño Strains Gas appeared first on The Rio Times .
A Colombian investment bank estimates that each hour of power rationing during an intense El Niño event could cost around US$1.75 million in lost output. This is due to the country's heavy reliance on hydroelectric power, which is currently struggling due to lower-than-average river inflows caused by drought. The bank's estimate comes from Corficolombiana, the investment arm of the Grupo Aval conglomerate.
Corficolombiana's report highlights that El Niño, the Pacific warming phenomenon, is intensifying and causing drought in Colombia. Roughly two-thirds of the country's electricity is generated from hydroelectric dams, so reduced river flow quickly becomes a significant power issue. The report suggests that the hit to gross domestic product (GDP) from rationing could reach 5.600 million pesos per hour, or 5.6 billion pesos in English usage.
The bank warns that a repeat of the 1992-1993 blackout, which occurred during another strong El Niño, could lead to a gas deficit of 15% to 20% of demand. This is because thermal power plants, which run on natural gas, require a significant amount of gas to operate. The bank expects gas demand for these plants to increase by 85% year over year in August, potentially exceeding the additional supply capacity expected.
Three critical projects are mentioned as crucial for addressing the gas shortage: a larger SPEC import terminal on the Caribbean coast, and terminals at Buenaventura and Puerto Bahía. If these projects do not proceed as planned, the bank predicts a gas deficit of 15% to 20% of demand. The SPEC expansion is projected to add about 58 million cubic feet of gas per day, representing roughly 6% of national demand.
The report also notes that while hydropower production has decreased from 78% in January to May to 59% in September, thermal generation has risen to 31.6%. Water inflows to the reservoirs have been 25% below the historical average in August, and this shortfall has widened to 27% by 15 September. This ongoing decline in hydroelectric power generation is contributing to the strain on Colombia's power grid.
Written by urgent.news from The Rio Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
