Bank of Canada: Slack delays hikes despite crude shock – NBC
National Bank of Canada's Ethan Currie notes that while oil-driven inflation risks have increased, the Bank of Canada is likely to remain on hold in October as domestic slack and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the economic outlook.
The Bank of Canada's Ethan Currie suggests that despite oil-driven inflation risks increasing, the central bank is likely to remain on hold for rate hikes in October. This decision is influenced by domestic slack and trade uncertainty affecting the economic outlook. While market expectations have anticipated around four hikes by June 2026, Currie believes the timing and pace may be somewhat overstated relative to underlying fundamentals.
Policymakers prioritize preventing second-round inflation effects, but the upcoming economic conditions will determine the actual implementation. Canada has already advanced its tightening timeline, but the central bank is expected to remain sidelined in October due to economic momentum concerns and slack. Despite market volatility, policymakers have maintained a consistent stance, with inflation risks tied closely to crude prices.
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