Will potential US secondary sanctions affect Iranian and global aviation?

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that secondary sanctions could be imposed on global air services providers dealing with Iranian airlines, as part of the US's economic pressure campaign against Tehran. He stated that Iranian airlines would be shut down on September 23 if the secondary sanctions are enforced. When Iranian airlines land at an airport, Bessent suggested that services like fuel, landing, and ticket sales would also be denied.

The US is in talks with Chinese financial authorities to ensure compliance with the sanctions against Iran. Iran has several airlines, including Iran Air, Mahan Air, and Qeshm Air, which operate internationally. However, Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, believes the impact of these potential sanctions on Iranian aviation will be limited due to the airlines' small global presence.

Ahmad questions whether airports would refuse payments from airlines and how such actions would be policed and enforced. He doubts that neighboring countries like Pakistan and China, which have strong ties to Iran, would comply with the US demands. The US is currently engaged in Operation Economic Outcast, targeting Iranian sources of funding globally.

Bessent highlighted that this operation aims to disrupt the Iranian regime's terrorist activities. With the recent threat of secondary sanctions on aviation services, Iran would face increased challenges, potentially leading to isolation from air travel and reliance on other airlines for air services.