Why are US gas prices so high? What’s driving the $4.32 average before midterms

US gas prices have sharply increased ahead of the midterm elections, reaching an average of $4.32 per gallon, according to recent data from the Energy Information Administration. This price is unusually high for this stage in an election year, with only 49 days remaining until the vote. The second-highest price from this point in previous elections was $3.88 in 2012, while the third-highest was $3.65 in 2022, both years involving Democratic presidents. Republicans have made high gas prices a major political issue during this election cycle.

The main reason behind the current surge in gas prices is the global oil market, which is influenced by wars and disruptions, particularly in Iran and Ukraine. These disruptions have created concerns about global energy supplies, making it harder to lower prices. Additionally, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at historically low levels, leaving the administration with fewer emergency oil stocks to counteract supply disruptions.

Diesel prices have also reached record highs, with the average hitting nearly $6.27 per gallon. Expensive diesel affects more than just drivers, as it is widely used by trucks and other commercial vehicles, potentially increasing transportation expenses and putting pressure on the prices of goods moving across the country.

Energy analyst Andrew Lipow noted that higher gasoline and diesel prices could impact a wide range of consumer goods. While the winter gasoline switch typically provides some relief, this year is not following the normal pattern due to significant increases in gas and diesel prices erasing the seasonal savings consumers usually expect in the fall. However, experts warn that geopolitical tensions may prevent meaningful price relief in the near term.

Gas prices are currently more than 35% above their level at this point in 2024, compared to an average of $3.18 per gallon at this stage in the 2024 election cycle. This major increase makes gasoline a particularly difficult issue for President Trump ahead of the midterms. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration over energy prices and promised to reduce costs for Americans, but he is now pointing to international conflicts.

While a temporary drop in diesel prices due to news about Russia and Ukraine agreeing to stop attacking energy targets briefly showed how sensitive the market is to war-related news, that relief did not last as energy-related strikes continued. President Trump has limited options to quickly bring gasoline prices down, such as restricting US oil exports, but energy experts have warned that such a move could have unintended consequences and could ultimately lead to higher prices.