Where Is OPEC+? Riyadh and Moscow’s Silence Is Becoming Deafening

The silence from OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia and Russia, is becoming increasingly deafening as the crisis unfolds. OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, once commanded market power through unified decisions. However, recent events have seen the alliance's influence wane. While OPEC still possesses vast reserves and available spare capacity, its ability to control the market has weakened.

The focus has shifted from shaping the market to reacting to events. The absence of clear leadership and joint assessments during the current supply crisis has raised concerns. Analysts expect extensive bilateral coordination between Saudi Arabia and Russia, but this has not materialized. Instead, markets have observed only brief virtual meetings and repeated commitments to market stability.

The UAE's departure from OPEC in May signals that some members may find greater influence outside the organization. With countries like Iraq and Venezuela pushing for higher quotas, the battle over production baselines for 2027 promises to be contentious. The transition from reliance on nominal production increases to physical supply and operational transparency has become crucial.

Export routes are now decisive, with Hormuz traffic at a fraction of pre-war levels and Saudi Arabia forced to redirect volumes due to attacks on infrastructure. The transition highlights the urgency of restoring market trust, as market power now depends on physical supply and transparency, not just announcements.