When will El Nino hit California? Forecast for San Diego, LA and other cities
A record-strength El Nino is already here, and forecasts say California could see much more rain from December.
California is bracing for a potentially record-setting El Nino event, which scientists say could bring heavy rain, storms and flooding during the upcoming winter season. The 2026-27 El Nino is already exhibiting record-breaking strength, with forecast models predicting above-normal rainfall across the state from December through April. While some models suggest drier conditions, most indicate above-normal precipitation.
Experts from the University of Miami and the Heising-Simons Foundation agree that the odds of an average winter are very low when the warm water near South America is unusually warm. This type of El Nino event is more strongly linked to heavy rain in California compared to those with warm water in the middle of the Pacific. If the warmest water remains near South America through the winter, as it has in previous strong El Nino events like 1982-83 and 1997-98, California could see a much wetter-than-normal winter.
Cities such as Los Angeles and San Diego are at particular risk of extreme rainfall, coastal flooding, and landslides. Emergency planners have declared a state of emergency and are preparing for possible power outages and widespread damage.
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