United States: Midterm outcomes and policy paths – NBC
National Bank of Canada (NBC) strategist Angelo Katsoras analyzes how the 2026 United States (US) midterm elections could reshape policy under President Trump. He notes Democrats are favoured by high inflation, weak approval ratings and a strong generic ballot lead.
National Bank of Canada strategist Angelo Katsoras examines the potential impact of 2026 United States midterm elections on President Trump's policy agenda. Democrats are favored due to high inflation, weak approval ratings, and a strong generic ballot lead. Analyzing two possible outcomes—Republicans losing control of one or both chambers—Katsoras notes that Democratic control of both would be a significant setback for the Trump administration.
Losing both chambers could weaken Trump's standing within the Republican Party, especially if Republicans blame him for their electoral defeats. Moving forward, policy uncertainty is expected to rise as the next presidential administration takes its cues. Current market conditions, including geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, further complicate the picture.
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