Trump says U.S. is working on ‘major deal’ to replace Canadian potash with Belarusian supplies, but President Alexander Lukashenko says Minsk has none to spare

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform that the United States is negotiating a significant deal to purchase potash fertilizer from Belarus. Trump claimed that the pricing would be considerably lower than the current cost from Canada, which would be beneficial for farmers and ranchers. However, just hours later, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that even if Belarus were able to resume exports to Western markets, they would not be able to meet the demand because all of their potash fertilizer is already contracted.

Lukashenko noted that they have been shifting their exports eastward, which is evident from their discussions with Americans. Despite the fact that the U.S. is dependent on imports for nearly all of its potash fertilizer needs, Canada provides nearly 80% of these imports, while Russia supplies 12%. Belarus is among the world's top producers of potash fertilizer, along with Canada, Russia, and China.

However, sanctions imposed due to the violent suppression of Belarus's 2020 protests and the Lukashenko regime's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine have hindered its access to Western markets. Following Trump's re-election, the U.S. began to improve relations with Lukashenko, including lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash exports. Meanwhile, the EU has maintained its sanctions on Belarusian potash imports.