Thor Industries earnings: Investors brace for sharp profit decline

Thor Industries is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens, with investors expecting a substantial profit decline due to weakening consumer demand and affordability pressures. Analysts predict earnings per share of 91 cents on $2.17 billion in revenue, a significant drop from the previous quarter's $1.86 per share and $2.78 billion in sales.

This marks a 61% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 14% decrease in revenue, highlighting the challenges for the world's largest RV manufacturer. Analysts have recently lowered their EPS estimates by an average of 29%, projecting continued headwinds for the company. Despite this, Thor shares maintain a neutral rating with a mean price target of $88.50, indicating a potential 31% upside from the current stock price of $67.77.

The company, valued at 13.4 times trailing earnings and 19.7 times forward estimates, faces near-term profit pressure. BMO Capital analyst Tristan Thomas-Martin recently lowered his price target to $95 from $110 while maintaining an Outperform rating, noting the extremely negative investor sentiment but seeing potential upside/downside skew at current valuations.

Retail demand data shows a 14-15% year-over-year decline in RV sales, with affordability challenges from higher financing costs impacting buyers. Thor has undergone a major North American restructuring to reduce costs, and management's outlook for fiscal 2027 will be crucial as the RV market adjusts to softer demand and affordability constraints in 2026.