The battle to be the next Mayor of London has already begun

Sadiq Khan, the current Mayor of London, is contemplating his future, while James Cleverly and Reform UK's Laila Cunningham are vying for his position in traditionally Labour-controlled London, reports Eliot Wilson. The next election for the Mayor of London is scheduled for May 4, 2028, and the battle lines are already forming.

Cleverly, the shadow secretary of state for housing, communities, and local government, recently turned 57 and has stepped down from his positions. His human demeanor and understanding of disengaged, cynical but anxious voters have made him an effective Conservative frontbencher. However, he may be looking for a new challenge, as he will compete for the Conservative nomination for Mayor of London, with applications due this Wednesday, September 30.

The Conservatives express cautious optimism about their chances of winning the mayoralty, marking a significant recovery after their defeat in July 2024. This position is unique in British politics, as London's population of 9 million, two-thirds of whom are registered voters, gives the Mayor a substantial national and international presence. The Mayor's executive powers are relatively modest, focusing on policing, transport, strategic planning, and economic development.

London's demographics are diverse, with 40% of the population born outside the UK and only 54% identifying as white. This has made it challenging for the Conservatives to secure success in the city. Boris Johnson's eight-year mayoralty (2008-2016) is considered an anomaly, and Labour has historically won the most seats and votes at every general election for the past three decades.

Cunningham, the Reform UK candidate, is a former Crown Prosecution Service lawyer and the child of Egyptian refugees. She faces competition from Westminster councillor Festus Akinbusoye, who is also vying for the Conservative nomination. Reform UK's choice of Cunningham has raised concerns about the city's safety, as she has criticized Khan's administration for a rise in knife crime and claimed that there are "no safe parts" of London.

This has sparked debate about the accuracy of perceptions of crime and disorder in the city, with recent data from King's College London Policy Institute suggesting that London has one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the country.