Texas Senate Race Shifts to 'Lean D' in Prediction Market Forecast
James Talarico has mounted an increasingly competitive challenge to Republican Ken Paxton.
The Texas Senate race is shifting in favor of the Democratic candidate, James Talarico, according to prediction market forecasts and election forecasters. Kalshi, Polymarket, Fox News, the Cook Political Report, and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model all now predict Talarico has a higher chance of winning the November election, ranging from 59% to 70%, compared to Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton's roughly 30% to 41% chance.
Polling data from RealClearPolling shows Talarico at 47.6% compared to Paxton's 45%. Talarico's campaign emphasizes affordability and economic issues, while Paxton has faced various scandals, including impeachment, a securities-fraud case, bribery allegations, and an acknowledged extramarital affair. If Talarico wins, he would be the first Democrat to win a Senate election in Texas since 1988.
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