Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls Further as Saudi Oil Flows Rise

Just a dozen cargo ships were observed navigating the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, according to Reuters, a decline from 35 tankers and other cargo vessels that passed through the strategic waterway a week ago. The count only includes vessels equipped with transponders, as many choose to disable these to evade detection. Reuters cited earlier data from Kpler revealing only four tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, a stark drop from the 10-day average of 16 vessels.

This data indicates that Iran's restriction on maritime traffic in the waterway has become increasingly stringent.

Over the week leading up to September 13, Kpler reported that only 13 supertanker-sized crude carriers exited the strait. However, a recent note from JP Morgan suggests a slight improvement in tanker traffic, particularly in Saudi Arabia. The bank noted that "Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline," adding that "The most notable pivot has come from Saudi Arabia."

According to JP Morgan, Saudi Arabia has been exporting crude at a rate of 2.9 million barrels per day over the past six days through the Hormuz, with the oil being transported from its Ras Tanurah port in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman via smaller vessels, before being transferred to larger tankers.

Nonetheless, while oil exports from the Persian Gulf are increasing, those originating from the Red Sea port of Yanbu have been affected by recent strikes by Yemen's Houthi group on Saudi targets. This weekend alone, strikes were carried out on facilities in Riyadh and the port of Yanbu, which has become the primary outlet for crude oil for Saudi Arabia since the Hormuz chokepoint was closed.