Silver price edges up as lower Oil, guarded Fed stance temper upside

Silver (XAG/USD) begins the week on a positive note, gaining 0.37% to trade around $66.50. Despite a stable US Dollar (USD), the precious metal manages to advance. Investors focus on developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices. Lower Oil prices offer support to Silver, as reduced energy costs help alleviate concerns about inflationary pressures and potentially prolong elevated US interest rates.

Oil prices fall due to hopes of improved relations between the US and Iran. President Trump may meet with Iranian President Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly, reducing geopolitical risk in energy prices. However, tensions persist in the Middle East, with Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi forces clashing. The US monetary policy outlook remains crucial for Silver.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, signaling potential further tightening in the future. The Fed's more hawkish stance, as indicated by Goolsbee's speechtracker score, underscores a conditional but firm tightening bias. The focus on persistent supply shocks and the need for clear evidence that supply-driven inflation is fading suggests a guarded policy tone.

Investors will monitor S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey, and Fed officials' speeches this week. Technical analysis shows XAG/USD at $66.56, supported by the 100-period and 200-period SMAs. Resistance lies at $67.35, with a potential cap at $68.30. Support is near $65.80, with deeper support at $65.19.