Russia’s ‘Partial Mobilization’ Turns Four: Is Another Draft Coming?

Four years have passed since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "partial mobilization" on September 21, 2022. Moscow insists it can continue its war in Ukraine without another mass call-up, but evidence suggests Russia has moved beyond traditional recruitment methods. Instead, it has shifted to a permanent system combining contracts, financial incentives, digital surveillance, and administrative pressure.

Putin's initial mobilization order, aimed at 300,000 reservists, quickly became chaotic, disproportionately affecting certain groups. The mobilization was declared completed on October 28, 2022, but Putin never formally revoked it. While contract recruitment is now the Kremlin's main public method of adding new personnel, it is just one part of a more extensive manpower system.

This system includes contract soldiers, those facing criminal prosecution or serving sentences, and individuals pressured into signing contracts. The UK government report found cases of deception, threats, and physical coercion in the recruitment process. Russia can boost its military intake without a new nationwide mobilization by raising enlistment bonuses and using administrative pressure.

The government reported that 450,000 people signed military contracts in 2024 and 2025, though these figures are unverified. Russia's target for 2026 is about 409,000 contract recruits. Ukrainian intelligence claims Russia plans to mobilize an additional 600,000 people over the next two years, though no formal order has been issued.

Recruitment remains high, but it is becoming more costly and may not provide enough personnel to replace losses and expand the military.