Russia's election is over. Could mobilization be next?
Nobody expected Russia's parliamentary election to wrest power from President Vladimir Putin, with preliminary results on Sept. 21 showing the Kremlin-backed United Russia party winning once again with nearly 58% of the vote. Instead, the question after the election is whether, when, and in what form the Kremlin will launch a new mobilization wave that Kyiv has warned could follow the vote — and…
Russia's parliamentary election concluded on September 21, 2025, with the Kremlin-backed United Russia party securing nearly 58% of the vote. However, the immediate focus has shifted towards the potential Kremlin's mobilization plans, as Ukraine warns that a new mobilization wave could follow the election. Russia aims to capture Donetsk Oblast and has set a deadline of either the end of 2026 or March 2027 for achieving this goal.
To sustain the campaign, Russia would require additional manpower, with Ukrainian intelligence estimating that the General Staff is prepared to mobilize around 300,000 personnel in 2026 and 2027. This would be in addition to approximately 400,000 people needed annually just to replenish Russia's forces. Contract recruitment has been slowing, with only around 234,000 people signing contracts between January and August 2025, compared to roughly 260,000 in the same period in 2024.
Moscow is also facing manpower shortages, with President Zelensky stating that Russia has suffered nearly 225,500 casualties since 2026, while Ukrainian authorities estimate the total military casualties over the full-scale invasion at around 1.6 million.
Written by urgent.news from Kyiv Independent's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
