Novaya Gazeta Europe: United Russia would have won just 34% in State Duma elections without ballot stuffing
Without fraud, United Russia would have won about 34% of the vote in the State Duma elections. The party’s official result — nearly 58% — was about 1.7 times that figure. Novaya Gazeta Europe reached this conclusion using calculations based on election analyst Sergey Shpilkin’s method.
Without ballot stuffing, United Russia would have secured around 34% of the vote in the State Duma elections, according to Novaya Gazeta Europe. The party's actual result was approximately 58%, which is roughly 1.7 times higher. This conclusion was drawn by applying a method devised by election analyst Sergey Shpilkin, based on the belief that a significant increase in votes for a single candidate will also inflate the overall turnout.
Election graphics typically depict a uniform cluster of polling stations with normal results, while suspicious stations — often suspected of ballot stuffing — appear as a "comet tail" with higher turnout and a larger share of the vote for the front-runner. Shpilkin, a physicist, has been examining Russian election data since 2007 using a technique developed by American diplomat John Brady Kiesling.
Despite its constraints, many political scientists and journalists have adopted Shpilkin's approach to ascertain instances of election fraud. Shpilkin's residence was searched in 2022, while he was already outside Russia at that time.
Written by urgent.news from Meduza (English)'s reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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