Nearly half of Taiwanese lack confidence in US defence commitments, survey finds

Nearly half of Taiwanese citizens express a lack of confidence in the United States' military aid and arms sales commitments, according to a recent survey. This finding surfaced ahead of a crucial summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Conducted by Taiwan-based United Daily News since 2010, the poll indicated that 47% of respondents were not confident the US would continue providing military assistance and selling weapons to Taiwan. This figure was slightly higher than the 44% who remained confident.

The survey also revealed fluctuating expectations regarding direct American military support. Two years ago, 49% believed the US would send troops to defend Taiwan, whereas 42% thought otherwise. Last year, the figures were reversed, with 49% expecting no US intervention, and 49% predicting US troops would come. This year, the balance shifted again, with 47% anticipating US military presence and 43% expecting otherwise.

Taiwan's reliance on US security commitments is emphasized in the newspaper's commentary, stating that fewer than half of the respondents have confidence in these commitments. The findings come amid a stalled US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan, with Beijing pressuring Washington over weapons sales ahead of the Xi-Trump summit.

William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, suggests that Chinese President Xi Jinping may pressure Trump over arms sales, including the delayed US$14 billion package. Meanwhile, Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defence Priorities, believes Chinese objectives may include cancelling the package entirely, rather than merely postponing or suspending it.

Despite tensions between China and Taiwan, only 56% of respondents described cross-strait military relations as tense, a figure relatively unchanged from last year and below its peak of 64% in 2022. The average likelihood of war between the two sides, on a scale of 1 to 10, was 4.4 – slightly higher than a decade ago. The most frequently cited factor contributing to cross-strait tensions is Taiwan independence.