Kinew, NDP rise to new heights in Free Press-Abacus Data poll; support for Khan, Tories falls further
Buoyed by a bump outside Winnipeg, support for Premier Wab Kinew’s NDP climbed to its highest level yet, while the Tories lost some ground.
A recent Free Press-Abacus Data poll reveals that Premier Wab Kinew's New Democrats (NDP) have reached new heights in popularity, while support for the Progressive Conservatives (Tories) has fallen further. The NDP's support reached its highest level yet, buoyed by a rise outside Winnipeg, with 60% of respondents stating they would vote for them in an upcoming election year. In contrast, Tory support has decreased, with 29% of respondents backing Obby Khan's Progressive Conservatives.
Support for the Liberals, led by Willard Reaves, remains low at 18%, while 7% of respondents were undecided. Prime Minister Mark Carney's approach to trade wars appears to be contributing to the NDP's surge in support. Kinew's personal approval rating increased by five percentage points to 68% year-over-year, while Khan's rating dropped by three points to 31%, and Reaves' rating decreased by four points to 19%.
The NDP has seen a significant boost in rural and northern areas, with support increasing by 12 points compared to June. However, the Tories and Liberals have lost three and five points, respectively. Tory MLA Colleen Robbins narrowly defeated NDP candidate Ray Berthelette in an August 2025 byelection in Spruce Woods, highlighting the competitive nature of rural ridings. The poll surveyed 1,000 random adults between August 28 and September 14, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95% of the time.
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