Indian rupee poised for subdued start as traders watch oil prices, IPO-linked flows

Mumbai: The Indian rupee is anticipated to begin the week quietly on Monday, as traders closely monitor oil prices and foreign portfolio flows, while banking on potential central bank intervention to curb the currency’s decline. The rupee is predicted to open around the 95.90-95.95 range, slightly weaker compared to its Friday close of 95.8725, according to traders.

While oil prices dipped on Monday but remained above $100 as Iran and the United States exchanged volatile threats, investors assessed the recovery in energy shipments from Saudi Arabia, with Brent prices falling 2% to $101.7 per barrel. Although higher oil prices may strain the current account, Goldman Sachs expects the improved capital flow dynamics to keep USD/INR within the 95-97 band.

Additionally, the central bank's inflow measures, such as incentives for overseas FX deposits and borrowings, have bolstered India's foreign exchange reserves to approximately $781 billion, empowering the central bank to fund the current account shortfall and curb rupee depreciation. "Even if the broad USD rebounds, the RBI has shown it possesses ample tools to cap the upside in USD/INR, given that it hasn't initiated rate hikes yet," the note further elaborated.

Foreign portfolio flows related to a significant domestic IPO may also bolster the rupee on Monday, as traders indicated. The National Stock Exchange of India's $2.3 billion IPO, which saw full subscription on Friday, is expected to maintain strong demand, particularly from foreign institutional investors, on Monday. Regional currencies remained mainly range-bound, while share markets ticked upward as AI's insatiable data demand fueled chipmakers' performance. However, futures markets suggested a subdued start for equities in Mumbai.