German state elections: Two states, two extremes

Two regional elections produced winners from opposite ends of the political spectrum, leaving the federal government in Berlin looking weaker than it had this morning. For the first time, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party became the largest in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while the Left Party won elections for the first time in Berlin.

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won with 38.2% of the vote, surpassing the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 35.5%. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came in third with 4.9%, missing the 5% threshold needed to secure a seat in the state parliament. The Left Party received 6.5%, just ahead of the Greens at 5.7%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) continued to struggle, remaining at 1% and out of another state parliament.

In Berlin, the Left Party achieved a historic victory, winning 25.7% of the vote. This doubled their 2023 result and put them on track for a majority, potentially leading to the first Governing Mayor from the Left Party. The governing CDU came second with 18.8%, followed by the Greens at 14.3% and the SPD at 12.1%. The AfD took around 16.3% of the vote.

The rise of the AfD continued, now being the largest party in three states: Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Nationwide, the AfD has become Germany's largest party, with polls consistently around 30%. Forming a stable government in both states will be challenging. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the SPD is likely to form the next government but would need two partners, while the AfD also plans to build a coalition.

In Berlin, the Left Party could theoretically lead a coalition with the SPD and Greens, though they are unwilling to support the expropriation of large landlords.

These elections reflect the low popularity of the federal government, particularly Chancellor Friedrich Merz. His comments on election night, an unprecedented move, showed his attempt to address speculation about his possible resignation. The results were likely driven by the lack of affordable housing in Berlin, echoing the mayoral race in New York last year. However, they also indicate the federal government's weakened standing, which will create new tensions.

The CDU faced further internal debates following its last-minute withdrawal from state parliament in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Reform implementation will be a focus for the CDU, hoping to regain popularity through economic momentum. The SPD might reconsider their stance on structural reforms, particularly on pensions, to win back voters.

Overall, the elections highlight an increasingly fragmented political landscape, with a right-wing populist party winning in one state and a left-wing populist party winning in the other. Years of economic stagnation have contributed to this fragmentation, making it harder to escape the current stagnation.