GBP/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.3400 as bearish momentum persists below 100-day SMA

The GBP/USD currency pair slipped towards 1.3375 early on Monday as the US Dollar gained strength against the British Pound. This movement came after the US Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points, signaling potential further hikes in the future. Traders now consider a 56.5% chance of another US rate increase during the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England maintained interest rates at 3.75% last week but warned that inflation could reach 4% early next year. J.P. Morgan analysts predict a 25 bps interest rate hike from the UK central bank in February, but express concern about additional tightening if the Iran war persists. Scotiabank strategists highlight UK fiscal discipline as a supportive factor for the Pound, as market participants and media maintain confidence in the government's commitment to fiscal responsibility.

On the chart, GBP/USD exhibits a bearish short-term trend, trading below the 100-day moving average and the Bollinger midline. The pair is near the lower Bollinger band, signaling downside pressure, with the Relative Strength Index at 35 suggesting weak momentum. Key resistance levels include the 100-day moving average at 1.3435 and the Bollinger midline at 1.3505.

The Pound's value is primarily influenced by monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England, which aims to keep inflation steady around 2%. A drop below the lower Bollinger band could lead to further losses, potentially reaching the September 18 low of 1.3335 and the July 28 low of 1.3273.