Ber Norges Bank droppe renteheving: – Vil være galskap

Norges Bank has decided to postpone increasing its interest rate, deeming it a mistake. Chief economist Jan L. Andreassen, known for advocating for low interest rates, argues against raising the rate at this time, citing the struggling construction industry, expectations of a decline in oil investments, and a stronger krone. Economist Erica Dalstø from SEB suggests that the decision is a matter of high importance, but doubts that the central bank will maintain the current rate or raise it.

The economic situation since the last Norges Bank meeting in June does not clearly indicate either a steady rate or an increase. Dalstø believes a 0.25 percentage point increase would be more appropriate, as rising energy prices offset the krone's strength. In addition, expectations of higher interest rates in other countries have boosted the krone.

Maria Gonsholt Hov from Handelsbanken anticipates the rate will be raised soon. She points out the inflation issue Norges Bank faces, stating that the core inflation rate, despite lower energy prices and tax adjustments, is still above the central bank's target of 2% annual price growth. Hov notes that Norges Bank's assessments show steady economic growth, but slightly below the long-term trend.

He also mentions that the central bank is navigating a period of relatively lower activity than usual in the economy. Oddmund Berg from DNB Carnegie suggests that the bank may hold off on the rate increase until September, but may raise it in December if economic indicators remain weaker than expected. Berg believes that lower price growth, a stronger krone, and slightly weaker economic data could prompt the bank to delay the hike.

Olav Chen from Storebrand holds out the possibility of a rate hike later in the year, if inflation does not improve. He notes that markets are currently expecting three rate hikes from other central banks in the next year, including the US Federal Reserve, hinting at a "mini-cycle" of interest rate changes. Chen emphasizes that Norges Bank is not the only central bank showing signs of inflation concerns.