As cities prepare for 2026's super El Niño, some crucial blind spots can't be ignored

This year's El Niño could be among the strongest in recent memory, with the impacts already being seen across the globe. In the United States, the hottest summer on record was experienced in the Lower 48 states, while drought conditions are slowing shipping in the Panama Canal. The Pacific Ocean is seeing an unusually high number of hurricanes, while the Atlantic is relatively calm. These are just a few of the early indicators of what could be an extreme El Niño event through early 2027.

Researchers studying climate and disaster resilience note that community planning for El Niño often focuses on identifying vulnerable infrastructure. However, it can be challenging to address the needs of at-risk populations, such as low-income communities and older adults. These groups may require assistance in preparing their homes and themselves for extreme weather conditions.

As communities prepare for the heightened risk of extreme weather, they should be aware of potential blind spots. One such blind spot is the impact of El Niño on coastal areas. When combined with king tides and rising sea levels, El Niño conditions can lead to increased coastal flooding, erosion, and damage to homes and infrastructure. Past El Niño events have caused significant flood damage and landslides, disrupting highways and public services long after a storm has passed.

Preparing for the upcoming El Niño in late 2026 and early 2027 requires ensuring that critical infrastructure can withstand flooding, temperature extremes, and other severe weather conditions. This includes inspecting flood control systems, trimming trees that could bring down power lines during high winds, and reinforcing or maintaining infrastructure like dams, stormwater channels, roads, and bridges.

Aging infrastructure, particularly old levees and dams, can pose a significant risk, as seen in Seattle in December 2025 when flooding caused levees to fail in multiple communities. Repairing and replacing such infrastructure is costly and time-consuming, often delayed until after the failure occurs.

Preparing a community for El Niño also involves addressing the social vulnerabilities of its residents. Government efforts often focus on physical risks, but vulnerable populations, including the homeless, older adults, and individuals with disabilities, may face higher risks and greater challenges. For instance, those with limited mobility may struggle with evacuation or accessing shelters, while financially constrained individuals may lack options for relocation or home improvements.

Homeless individuals often lack safe shelter, highlighting the need for targeted policies beyond physical infrastructure investments.

Addressing social vulnerabilities requires a more comprehensive approach, involving coordination across housing, healthcare, emergency management, and social services. While specific solutions like building seawalls can be tied to project-specific funding, reducing social vulnerability demands sustained investment across multiple domains. The gaps in preparedness, such as affordable housing shortages, poverty, and limited access to healthcare, can hinder a community's ability to recover from extreme weather events.

In Los Angeles, emergency managers are addressing this challenge by conducting scenario exercises in 2026. These exercises bring together county departments and community disaster management coordinators to practice responding to El Niño-driven extreme weather events, identifying gaps in existing plans, and determining necessary preparations.

Such scenario-based planning enables disaster responders to work through hypothetical events before they occur, helping to ensure that communities are better equipped to handle extreme weather conditions in the future.