Another interest rate hike looms
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to 5.25 percent by year-end as elevated oil prices and peso weakness complicate the inflation outlook, according to Union Bank of the Philippines and ANZ Research.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may increase its benchmark interest rate to 5.25 percent by the end of the year, amid high oil prices and a weak Philippine peso, according to economic forecasts from Union Bank of the Philippines and ANZ Research. Both banks anticipate another 25-basis-point hike from the current five-percent rate, which dictates borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
UnionBank's chief economist, Ruben Carlo Asuncion, expects a rate increase in October, which could lead to a pause in tightening by year-end. However, ANZ projects the 5.25-percent rate by December. The weaker peso, which imports fuel and goods at higher costs, could exacerbate inflation risks. The Philippines is among the economies more vulnerable to US high oil prices and tightened US interest rates, despite broader Asian market resilience.
ANZ projects the peso to reach 63 against the dollar by year-end before recovering to 61.50 in the next year. UnionBank also predicts a slower Philippine economic growth rate in 2026, suggesting 2.8 percent growth compared to ANZ's 3.5-percent estimate. Inflation forecasts differ as well, with UnionBank estimating 5.3 percent for 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027, while ANZ expects 6.2 percent and 5.2 percent respectively.
Despite these pressures, Asuncion highlighted the country's well-capitalized banking system, substantial international reserves, and steady overseas remittances and business services as potential buffers to support the economy.
Written by urgent.news from Philippine Star Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
