After the Strikes: What Next for Qatar, Iran and the World’s Largest Gas Field?

The 2026 Middle East conflict has impacted the world's largest gas fields, Qatar's North Field and Iran's South Pars, leading to a disruption in the global gas system. These fields together account for 25% of the world's gas and supply 10% of global production. The strikes have caused a cascading effect across the entire value chain, from upstream production to LNG liquefaction and export infrastructure.

In Qatar, strikes at the Pearl GTL complex in March 2026 and an explosion at the Barzan gas plant in June 2026 have resulted in a loss of 4.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas-processing capacity. This accounts for roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, with the Barzan shutdown alone removing 35% of Qatar's domestic gas supply.

Repair costs are estimated at US$5.8 billion in real terms, with recovery timelines ranging from four to twelve months. Around 10% of Shell's upstream cash flow is at risk from the Pearl GTL outage.

Iran's situation is equally concerning. Strikes on the Assaluyeh processing hub and Phase 13 facilities at Kangan have disrupted production across multiple field phases. South Pars, which supplies 40-50% of Iran's fuel demand and around 80% of its power generation, has been affected. The country has no LNG export infrastructure and relies on liquid fuels to cover any supply shortfall. With peak summer gas demand surging to over 11 bcfd, Iran is now facing significant challenges in maintaining its energy security.

The combined disruption of these two major gas fields has turned a geographical concentration risk into an operational reality. The restoration of infrastructure will directly impact the development of Qatar's contracting window, which could see uncontracted volumes reach 54 mmtpa by 2035. This will affect trade flows, with Qatar currently exporting more than 80 million tonnes of LNG, with major buyers including India, Taiwan, and Europe.

The consequences of this conflict will be visible in the shift in buyer behavior and long-term energy security decisions. As the industry convenes at Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, the focus will be on how the consequences of these strikes shape the future of the global gas market.