Why $5 gasoline is about to force a major holiday shift

As autumn arrives on September 22, the usual pleasant aspect of the season – dropping gasoline prices – seems a distant memory for the 2026 holiday season. While some minor declines may occur in the next three months, a major shift is expected. Gasoline demand in July and August 2026 was about 1% lower than the previous year, and families may opt for shorter vacations instead of lengthy trips, according to various reports.

The price surge is primarily due to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, disrupting global energy markets more significantly than anticipated. On September 18, the U.S. national average gasoline price reached $4.47 per gallon, a 4% increase from the previous week and a year-to-date rise of 57%. Diesel prices hit a record $6.4776, up 6.5% in a week and 79% for the year.

Energy experts predict that U.S. gasoline prices could reach $5 a gallon just before the midterm elections on November 3. However, prices may begin to fall afterward, but for many families, the damage to holiday travel plans will already be done. Historical data shows that gasoline prices typically rise from mid-to-late winter into late spring, with prices dropping again in late summer as refiners adjust formulations for different weather conditions.