NIGERIA AND POLITICS OF FUEL SUBSIDY REMOVAL

In Nigeria, the issue of fuel subsidy removal has been a recurring political topic for decades. The Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), established after a 1993 fuel-price hike, aimed to allocate the extra revenue to crucial infrastructure and national development through the Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P) in 2012. However, by the time SURE-P came into effect, petrol prices had surged far beyond the earlier N8.50 per litre.

The question at hand is not merely whether fuel subsidy should be removed, but rather how often Nigerians have been forced to endure the consequences of subsidy removal and when they will finally see the promised benefits. Nigeria has undergone multiple rounds of fuel-price reforms, including attempts in 1993, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Each time, governments employed different tactics to reduce or eliminate the subsidy, such as the PTF and SURE-P in 1993 and 2012, respectively.

A critical issue surrounding subsidy removal is the lack of transparency in accounting for the fiscal space created by its removal. Nigerians question where the saved funds have gone, what has been reinvested, and whether the benefits have reached the average citizen. Over the years, various terms have been used to describe fuel policy changes, such as subsidy removal, reduction, deregulation, price modulation, reinvestment, and market-based pricing.

Yet for the average Nigerian, the experience remains largely the same: prices rise, the cost of living increases, and another promise is made that things will improve eventually.

It may be time to shift the focus from announcing fuel subsidy removal to initiating a more substantial conversation about accountability. If subsidy is a burden on government finances, the figures should be made public. If its removal is indeed saving the government money, Nigerians should be able to see the savings. If those savings are being invested in infrastructure and social protection, the projects should be visible, and the expenditure quantified.

Moreover, if the policy is genuinely necessary, the government must also explain why successive administrations have repeatedly resorted to subsidy removal as both an economic solution and a political promise, while the core issues of domestic refining, energy infrastructure, transportation, and mass poverty persist. After more than three decades of debate on the subject, the real question may no longer be when fuel subsidy will be eliminated, but rather when Nigerians will finally hear the final justification for its removal.