Märkte Insight: Der Dax hat seinen Spielraum für Verluste fast ausgereizt – bald könnte es ungemütlich werden

The past week on Germany's stock market was relatively uneventful, but Friday brought a significant change. The Dax index, which had recovered from several losses on Wednesday and Thursday, lost all of its gains overnight. This marked the third consecutive week of losses for the index. A key chart technical marker, the 25,300-point level, is now at risk of being breached.

Chart analysis relies on patterns to predict future market movements. The 25,300 point level had previously served as strong support for the Dax, with the index frequently falling back to this level before bouncing higher. When it dipped below this level on Wednesday, it triggered a rapid recovery that pushed the index back up to 25,800.

However, Friday's trading session saw the Dax fall below this crucial marker, closing at 25,304, which is its lowest closing point since late July. This represents the highest level of loss of trading room for the index. If the 25,300 marker holds, the focus will shift to the next technical support at 26,000. But if it breaks, a further decline could become more concerning.

September is already known for being an "unlucky month" for the stock market, with a historically negative performance. The losses on Friday were partly due to unexpectedly strong producer price increases released earlier in the day. Analyst Andreas Lipkow from online broker CMC Markets noted that this confirms the impact of prolonged high energy prices on the German economy.

The loss on Friday was exacerbated by it being a futures and options expiration day, known as a "hexenabend" or witch's Sabbath. Four times a year, these expirations can cause rapid price movements. Friday's drop might have been further amplified by this event. Investors will be closely watching how they interpret this drop. Will they see it as an opportunity to buy in at a lower price, or view it as a sign that the Dax is continuing its downward trend?

Opinions on both sides are valid, with some analysts noting that despite rising oil prices and high returns, they do not yet see a significant deterioration in company profit dynamics. However, ongoing concerns about rising interest rates gradually eating into company balance sheets could lead to further losses. The value of chart analysis lies in providing some guidance in this uncertain environment.

If the Dax falls significantly below the 25,300 marker, it could become uncomfortable territory. Holding above this level would mark a potential rebound, but even a brief dip below 26,000 has historically been a point of resistance in the past.