Global chip market projected to exceed $1.6 tln this year despite AI slowdown concerns: report

The global semiconductor market is expected to surpass US$1.6 trillion in 2026, more than doubling a previous forecast from this year, due to increased investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, according to a report released on Sunday. The projection comes as some in the AI industry have called for slowing down development due to fears of losing control over the technology.

Memory chips from Samsung Electronics Co. and SK hynix Inc. are anticipated to constitute over half of the global semiconductor market, given the surge in data processing by AI systems, according to the Korea Eximbank's research center, which compiled its findings using analysis from global market research firms such as TrendForce.

Historically, the global semiconductor market was anticipated to exceed $1 trillion only by 2030. However, this outlook has been significantly revised upward as major U.S. and Chinese hyperscalers, which manage large-scale data centers, have significantly ramped up investments in AI infrastructure. As of the end of last month, the prices of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory chips were $25 and $30.5, respectively, indicating a fourfold and ninefold increase from the previous year.

These memory chip prices are expected to stabilize from the upcoming year, yet the global semiconductor market is forecast to continue growing on consistent demand, potentially reaching about $2 trillion by 2030, according to the latest estimate. Major tech companies are forming long-term supply agreements with memory chipmakers like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which is expected to help stabilize the semiconductor industry compared to past trends.

The report also highlights that these investments by big tech firms in AI and the proliferation of AI services will likely maintain momentum in the memory chip market in the near term.

The chip industry has seen a 15% increase in employment from 152,000 in the first quarter of 2018 to 174,000 in the same period this year, as reported by the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), which began compiling related data in the first quarter of this year. The average monthly salary for workers in the industry was 4.32 million won ($3,100) during the first half of this year, representing a 3.1% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by substantial bonuses at semiconductor companies.