German voters head to polls in key state elections as far right eyes gains

Germans began voting today in two state elections where far-right and far-left parties could cause new political upheaval in Berlin and challenge the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz, a 70-year-old leader of the centre-right CDU party, has called an emergency meeting of his party leadership to discuss early results from the regional polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The chancellor, who has been in power for 16 months, has cancelled his schedule and skipped a trip to the UN General Assembly to attend to the potential fallout from the elections.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has close ties to pro-Trump and Moscow-friendly sentiments, suffered a major setback against Merz's CDU in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago. This loss has raised concerns about internal party support for Merz, who is already struggling to implement economic and social welfare reforms with his SPD coalition partners. Despite polling at 36 percent, the AfD is unlikely to gain sufficient seats to challenge any party for power in either state.

The CDU is facing unique challenges in the two elections. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the northeastern coastal state, CDU is watching a fierce battle between the SPD led by popular premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD. The AfD is currently polling at 36 percent compared to the SPD's 37 percent, according to the public broadcaster ZDF.

However, Merz's CDU is trailing far behind, with only six percent support, raising the possibility of a historic first where the CDU fails to reach the five percent threshold needed to retain a seat in the legislature.

In Berlin, the ruling CDU is locked in a close race against the far-left Die Linke party, which is popular among young voters and promises to tackle the city's housing crisis. A defeat for the CDU in Berlin would be another blow for Merz, particularly from Die Linke, which seeks to curb corporate power and aligns with Moscow. Merz's personal approval ratings have plummeted to just above 10 percent, with pollster Roland Abold of the Infratest Dimap research institute describing his situation as "quite dramatic."

Pollster Abold also noted that most of Merz's problems have originated abroad. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, creating a cost-of-living crisis. Additionally, concerns about Russia have spurred a German rearmament drive, accelerated by US President Donald Trump's often hostile stance towards European NATO allies. China's rapid rise is also turning a once-important German export market into a formidable industrial competitor.

Despite these challenges, some commentators believe Merz may still survive the current political storm and complete his term until 2029.