Will There Be a Stock Market Crash in Year 6 of Donald Trump's Presidency? One Historically Flawless Metric Paints a Worrisome Picture.
Key PointsStatistically, the annualized returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have been higher under President Trump than under most other presidents.
The stock market has thrived during President Donald Trump's six-year tenure, with broad-market indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite posting notably higher average annual returns compared to presidents of the past, according to historical data. The Trump administration's policies, including the signing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017, have directly contributed to this positive trend by permanently lowering the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%.
This change allowed businesses to retain more of their earnings, subsequently resulting in record S&P 500 share buybacks in 2025. Despite the seemingly flawless performance, the current Bull market may encounter its most significant challenge yet, as the recently outlined metric raises concerns about a potential stock market crash.
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