Short-term inflation surges past 10pc

Official data released on September 19th, 2026 revealed that short-term inflation, as measured by the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), surged by an unprecedented 10.64 percent year-on-year for the week ending on September 17th. This marked the start of a dangerous double-digit inflationary spiral. The government's unwillingness to cut the petroleum levy resulted in a daily increase in petrol and diesel prices, exacerbating the inflationary pressure. Rising energy costs were also contributing to higher sales tax collections.

Transport costs had also seen an unprecedented rise, which in turn affected the prices of essential food items such as onions, tomatoes, and other vegetables. On a weekly basis, the SPI increased by 0.49 percent, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The SPI showed a broad-based rise, indicating ongoing pressure on living costs.

This increase was driven by sharp gains in key items such as petrol (48 percent), diesel (54.21 percent), LPG (60.42 percent) and wheat flour (33.27 percent). The SPI had risen for the 73rd consecutive week, signaling sustained cost-push inflation, where higher energy prices led to higher food costs, placing greater financial pressure on average households.

The items with the largest price increases over the previous week included diesel, up by 7.29 percent, followed by petrol (6.40 percent), LPG (3.26 percent), garlic (1.94 percent), eggs (1.72 percent), pulse gram (0.80 percent), plain bread (0.74 percent), pulse masoor (0.49 percent), mustard oil (0.44 percent), pulse moong (0.39 percent), mutton (0.26 percent) and firewood (0.07 percent).

On the other hand, prices of bananas, tomatoes, onions, chicken, powdered milk, wheat flour, rice IRRI-6/9 and sugar declined week-on-week. However, annual inflation figures showed that onions (117.77 percent), LPG (60.42 percent), diesel (54.21 percent), petrol (48 percent), electricity for Q1 (33.54 percent), wheat flour (33.27 percent), chilli powder (16.37 percent), mutton (15.86 percent), beef (12.88 percent), bananas (9.24 percent), plain bread (8.89 percent) and fresh milk (8.12 percent) were the most expensive items.

Meanwhile, prices of potatoes fell by a staggering 35.31 percent, followed by sugar (20.95 percent), eggs (19.31 percent), chicken (15.26 percent), salt powder (13.96 percent), pulse gram (12.42 percent), pulse masoor (11.26 percent) and pulse moong (8.49 percent).