Mexico’s week in review: Independence Day fireworks give way to trade deal hopes

This past week saw Mexico commemorating its Independence Day on September 16, while less celebratory events unfolded. Claudia Tacoronte Aguilera, a 21-year-old Spanish exchange student attending the Autonomous University of Morelos, was tragically stabbed to death in Cuauhtla, marking the fourth femicide involving a UAEM student in just one year.

The incident prompted outrage from both local authorities and Spanish officials. Meanwhile, Pemex announced the containment of an oil spill off the coast of Campeche, showcasing a marked improvement in response times compared to a major spill in February.

Peso traded above 17 to the dollar throughout the week, weakening to its weakest level since March as markets digested the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. This depreciation narrowed the rate differential between Mexico and the United States. Industrial activity demonstrated the strongest annual growth in nearly three years, with industrial activity up 2.4% in seasonally adjusted terms.

Construction led the charge, increasing 6.7% annually, followed by mining at 1.6% and manufacturing at 1.3%. However, industrial activity only grew by 0.4% for the first seven months of 2026, a modest recovery from a 1.3% contraction in 2025. Economists at Grupo Financiero Monex anticipate only moderate growth, citing concerns over USMCA-related uncertainty and potential U.S. tariffs on vehicles, steel, and aluminum.

For the first time, Coahuila topped INEGI’s national safety perception survey, with only 27.8% of residents considering the state unsafe due to crime. This marked a significant improvement of 9.9 points, surpassing Baja California Sur's previous top position. Coahuila's homicide rate plummeted to just 100 in 2025, a stark contrast to over 1,100 killings in 2012.

Analysts credited increased federal forces and prevention programs as key factors. Nonetheless, 74% of adults nationwide still perceive their state as unsafe, with México state emerging as the least safe, with 90% of respondents reporting security concerns.

On Tuesday night, President Claudia Sheinbaum delivered her second Grito de Independencia from the National Palace balcony, addressing an estimated crowd of over 300,000 in the Zócalo. Sheinbaum honored Mexican independence heroes, including Miguel Hidalgo, Josefa Ortiz, Leona Vicario, and Vicente Guerrero, alongside Indigenous and Afro-Mexican communities, as well as migrants abroad.

Iran honored the occasion by illuminating Tehran’s Azadi Tower in green, white, and red, a gesture deemed a "great gesture of friendship" by the Mexican ambassador to Iran. In the United States, Mayor Zohran Mamdani served as the grand marshal of Brooklyn’s Mexican Independence Day parade, following U.S. Vice President JD Vance's controversial remarks regarding a Mexican flag-carrying protester.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s National Antitrust Commission opened an investigation into Liga MX, questioning whether the league operates as a monopoly, potentially facing fines of up to 10% of annual income if found guilty.