Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Will economy shape the vote?

In the recent election, the far-right AfD party achieved a landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt, garnering nearly 44% of the vote. This marks the first time a far-right party has likely entered a German government since World War II. However, it seems unlikely that the same outcome will occur in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where voters are set to decide on Sunday. The state's premier, Manuela Schwesig, of the center-left Social Democrats, remains popular, although there are critics.

Polls suggest a close race between the Social Democrats and AfD, rather than a clear winner. Schwesig's approval ratings have been increasing, potentially indicating a successful final push that could return her to power. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, like Saxony-Anhalt, is in eastern Germany, but its economy is relatively stable. Despite an unemployment rate of 7.8%, slightly above the national average, the state has experienced solid economic growth in recent years.

Jochen Schulte, from the state's Economy Ministry, reports a 5% expansion in inflation-adjusted terms since 2020, compared to Germany's 4.6%. The state's economy is driven by agriculture, shipbuilding, and maritime services, tourism, and the energy sector. Agriculture remains a significant industry, with large agricultural companies controlling substantial land.

The shipbuilding and maritime services sector benefits from the state's location on Germany's Baltic Sea coast, attracting investment and creating jobs. Tourism, while not directly employing a large number of people, is crucial for the economy, with many jobs overlapping with other sectors. The energy sector is also vital, particularly in light of the recent disruption in Russian gas imports.