Kenya’s next export boom may be online as WTO predicts AI could reshape global trade

Kenya stands poised on the brink of a new export era, one that may be driven not by traditional shipping containers, but by the burgeoning world of artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technology. According to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the global trade landscape is poised for a significant transformation, with AI potentially boosting international trade by 40% by 2040.

This growth is expected to be concentrated in digitally deliverable services, which encompass a range of expertise from software and accounting to consulting and professional services. The report suggests that for Kenya, this shift could open up a vast marketplace for technology companies, fintechs, business process outsourcing firms, and professional service providers looking to sell their expertise worldwide without the need for physical product shipments.

This opportunity is already evident in recent trade data, which show that digitally delivered services now account for 55% of global services exports, a 10% increase from the previous year. Such a surge in digital trade is not limited to Kenya alone; Africa as a whole is experiencing rapid growth in services exports, with the continent's share of global services trade rising by 14% in 2025, marking the fastest regional growth recorded that year.

The WTO's findings indicate that the expansion of digital technology has not only changed how economies trade but also what they trade. AI is playing a pivotal role in this transformation by reducing the costs associated with information creation, processing, and transmission, while simultaneously reshaping production processes across industries.

The report projects that AI could potentially add 13.2% to global GDP over the next 15 years, with the most favorable scenarios seeing AI contributing significantly to the global economy. For Kenyan businesses, particularly those in the service sector, this presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities. While AI can enhance the efficiency and reach of service delivery across borders, the complex web of regulatory requirements, data governance, privacy concerns, and cybersecurity measures must be navigated.

The WTO stresses that while legitimate regulation is essential to protect consumers and data, discrepancies between national regulatory frameworks can complicate cross-border trade. Issues such as data localisation requirements, divergent privacy laws, and additional compliance procedures can add to the cost of doing business and fragment digital markets.

As such, Kenya's potential to leverage AI and digital services for export growth will hinge not only on the competitiveness of its technology and services but also on its ability to navigate and comply with an increasingly complex global digital regulatory environment. While the WTO report does not predict a specific Kenyan AI or digital-services boom, the global trends it highlights, combined with the continent's growing export potential, suggest that Kenya's digital future could be profoundly different from the past.

The question now arises: Can Kenya transform its technology, professional services, and digital workforce into a more substantial share of the global market that AI is helping to create? The export landscape of tomorrow may very well be shaped not by traditional trade routes, but by the digital highways of the internet.