EU fuel prices hit records as ECB experts see diesel margins peak in October

The European Union has seen record-high fuel prices, according to data from the past two decades. An average 50-litre car fill-up now costs around €103 for petrol and €108 for diesel. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, fuel prices have soared due to disruptive energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Eurozone energy inflation reached 14.3% in August, up from 10.3% in July, according to the European Central Bank.

As of September 14, the weighted EU average price for petrol was €2.063 per litre, while diesel reached €2.159 per litre, both the highest readings in the Commission’s series since 2005. Malta had the cheapest petrol at €1.34 per litre, while Denmark faced the most expensive at €2.56. Diesel prices ranged from €1.21 per litre in Malta to €2.51 in Finland.

Factors contributing to the high fuel prices include international crude prices, rising refining costs, and margins. While petrol margin peaked earlier, diesel margins are expected to hit their highest point in October. From January 2026, EU petrol prices have increased by about 29%, and diesel by almost 40%.

Global crude oil prices have surged above $126 per barrel due to the conflict with Iran, impacting energy flows. European crude supplies might face further disruptions after Saudi Aramco informed European refiners they wouldn't receive oil under long-term contracts in October following an attack on their Red Sea pipeline.

ECB experts believe that if the conflict ends and energy flows resume, prices would decrease quickly. However, disruptions to Russian refining could keep margins elevated even if the Middle East conflict were resolved.