Canada took the trade war to Trump’s backyard. Americans didn’t care

Canada's trade war tactics have targeted the heartland of American politics, specifically the state of Texas. A third-generation family-owned business in Dallas, All Metals Fabricating, has experienced an 84% increase in aluminum costs since US tariffs were first introduced in March 2025. By 2026, these costs have escalated by a further 40%.

Despite this financial strain, business owner Lance Thrailkill, a Republican voter, is not considering changing his vote for President Trump due to these tariff issues. While Thrailkill acknowledges the financial impact of the trade war, he attributes any potential approval rating drop to Trump to other factors including his stance on small businesses and tax policies.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford attempted to escalate the trade war by urging Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to impose retaliatory tariffs on products from eight key US states, including Texas. Canada responded by imposing dollar-for-dollar tariffs, but the broader issue at hand is whether these tariffs could negatively impact Trump's political chances in the upcoming midterms. The midterms have several competitive races, including those in Texas, a state where Trump's approval rating is low, hovering around 35% in recent polls.

Texas' economy is deeply interconnected with Canada, with both nations exchanging nearly US$69 billion worth of goods in 2025. However, the economic ties between the two countries seem to be less relevant to many Texas voters. A recent Ipsos poll found that 57% of Americans oppose additional tariffs on Canada, with Trump's approval rating being low in several key states targeted by Ford.

While Canada may be able to inflict economic pain on the US through its retaliatory tariffs, the question remains whether this will translate into political repercussions for Trump in the upcoming midterms. The economic consequences are clear, but the political fallout for Trump is less certain.