BJP’s UP journey: The sweep of 2014, the peak of 2019, the dip of 2024

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP experienced a surge in Uttar Pradesh, winning 71 out of 80 seats with 42.63% of the votes. This "Narendra Modi wave" brought in muscular nationalism and Hindutva, along with significant support from non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits. The party fielded a higher number of OBC candidates, bypassing the Yadav voters who had previously supported the SP.

They secured victories in most regions except the Yadav-dominated belts of Firozabad, Mainpuri, and Kannauj, and the Muslim-Yadav-heavy Azamgarh and Badaun. The BJP's victory marked the beginning of a shift in voting patterns, as the party increasingly targeted non-Yadav OBCs.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls witnessed the BJP's peak in UP, with the party securing 62 out of 78 contested seats and a 50% vote share. This was largely due to the combined efforts of the BJP, its allies Apna Dal and NISHAD Party, and the broader Hindutva-plus-social-justice vote. The grand alliance of the SP, BSP, and RLD failed to translate into a cohesive vote for the opposition, allowing the BJP to capitalize on the disillusionment of Jats in western UP.

The SP and BSP managed to secure 47 and 10 seats, respectively, showcasing the BJP's dominance in the state.

However, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls marked a dip in the BJP's fortunes, with the party winning only 33 out of 80 contested seats. The SP, along with the BSP and RLD, formed a grand OBC-SC-Muslim alliance, challenging the BJP's dominance. The BJP's performance dipped despite the momentum generated by the construction of various projects, highlighting the growing discontent among the youth and sections of the "upper castes".

The party will need to devise strategies to reverse this 2024 dip and reassert its dominance in the most populous state of India.